A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer supports unity or the current situation. Both composes two articles that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must work out what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has got something to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
